Stumbling Towards Glasgow

Written By Carrie Pendolino
As the two major legislative packages have languished in Congress since the end of summer, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has repeatedly asked the question, Why are we spending money to accelerate an energy transition that is already happening?

That is a fair question, and answering it thoroughly is critical to whether the climate-related provisions of the reconciliation package and the companion bipartisan infrastructure bill will be enacted.

And with the 26th UN Conference of the Parties (COP26) on climate change about to begin in Glasgow, understanding the path of the energy transition is essential to getting climate policy right.

Sen. Manchin is correct about the question’s premise: The U.S. economy’s switch to cleaner energy has been underway for years. The share of global power from renewable wind and solar energy has grown by an annual 15 percent since 2015, albeit from a modest base. At the same time, fuel-switching from coal to cleaner natural gas has had an impact on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. (In fact, the pre-pandemic coal-to-gas switch contributed more GHG reduction than the growth in renewables did from 2008–2018!)

And therein lies the fateful dilemma of leaving the transition to market forces. The market is indeed favoring cleaner forms of energy, but it will always favor cheaper and more reliable first. The speed of the transition does matter, and matters more as time passes.

But we have both the means and the knowledge at hand to ensure that the energy transition is cleaner, faster.

  • The 2015 Paris Agreement provided the feasible framework for nations to work together to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions;
  • The August report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Sixth Assessment) supplied the indisputable roadmap for how GHG emissions must come down rapidly if climate disaster is to be averted; and finally
  • The respected International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) latest annual World Energy Outlook released just in time for Glasgow reveals the road on which we are actually traveling: Despite modest GHG reductions, the demand for energy will continue to grow, and the tendency for that demand to be met by readily available fossil sources will continue.

In short, the IEA report tells us clearly that, absent major changes in energy choices, we will fail to reduce GHG emissions as fast as the IPCC report warns that we must. Which brings us back to Sen. Manchin’s question, and how the answer must be addressed in Glasgow only a few weeks from now.

While the 2015 Paris Agreement was designed to bring about a “net zero” GHG world in 35 years, (by 2050), the IPCC report suggests that the world must make progress on GHG emissions within the next nine years (by 2030), or risk catastrophic climate consequences. It is hard to conclude that the transition is happening fast enough on its own to meet that goal.

In fact, most countries are already falling short of achieving their own Paris Agreement voluntary goals for reducing their GHG emissions — “Nationally Determined Contributions,” in COP-speak — Glasgow negotiators must deliver a real GHG plan, or else the entire Paris process may become irrelevant.

The best chance of a successful COP26 lies with U.S. leadership, and nothing would demonstrate that better than the enactment of domestic climate policies that set an example for the world. Some in Congress oppose extending subsidies for renewables or incentivizing utilities to use cleaner forms of energy. Others think federally subsidizing carbon capture only promotes further use of fossil fuels. However, both are likely necessary to a political resolution and passage of the entire package and, most important, both would reduce GHG emissions, which is the entire point.

Senator Manchin is right about one thing: Policies to encourage the energy transition should not create unnecessary or inequitable economic pain. But achieving that gets (much) harder with time. Innovators hope that Congress can deliver a new suite of climate policies before Glasgow, and set the tone for an effective COP26.

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With both COP26 and the climate provisions in Congress moving forward in the coming weeks, Innovators for Democracy is taking special interest in keeping innovators informed. IFD exists to both educate and convene, and we hope to fulfill both goals: On Oct.26th at 2 pm ET, we will hold an informational webinar previewing COP26, with special guest Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL), member of the House Committee on the Climate Crisis.

Then on Nov. 16th after COP26 is adjourned, we will return with a post-Glasgow webinar, examining any new global agreement reached along with any Congressional action on climate provisions. Given the great impact that COP26 may have on the world of innovation, we look forward to engaging with innovators and leaders in the weeks to come.

Carrie Pendolino
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